Please Act Now Before It's Too Late

It's the last day of 2016 and there is still time to make a generous donation to help combat the fastest growing disorder in this country.  The Dunning–Kruger effect is a debilitating condition that has afflicted at least 62,979,636 Americans according to most recent data.

In simplest terms, Dunning-Kruger occurs when people fail to adequately assess their level of competence or specifically, their incompetence, at any given subject or task.  In many cases, incompetence does not leave people disoriented or perplexed.  Instead, those afflicted are often empowered with an inappropriate confidence, buoyed by something that feels to them like knowledge.  The results can be catastrophic.

What can you do to help?  Several things, but first, make sure you're not suffering from this debilitating disorder yourself by taking this quick test.  Read the following statements:

• President Obama's birth certificate is fraudulent.
• Unemployment in America stands at 42%.
• Mexico will pay to build a border wall.
• Global warming is an expensive hoax.
• When you’re a star, they let you do it, you can do anything.

If you agree with these statements or voted for someone that has made these statements then, tragically, you have already contracted Dunning-Kruger.  Now you might say, "That's ridiculous, I feel fine." but sadly and by virtue of the effect itself, you are too incompetent to realize you've been afflicted.  At this point, you should simply stop reading.  Research has shown you are incapable of helping yourself.

If you passed the quick test above, there's still hope and here are three things you can do to help contain this terrible epidemic:

Inoculate yourself with facts - research and check things you hear, see, and say.  It's time consuming and sometimes difficult but complete information is the most important defense against succumbing to Dunning-Kruger yourself.

Help Others that cannot help themselves - you may have friends or family that are afflicted.  With their cognitive abilities impaired, these loved ones may resort to anger when they are presented with opposing points of view or they may simply retreat into a cocoon of baseless positions and withdrawal from all intelligent conversation.  In many ways, this is like dealing with a child that believes in the Tooth Fairy.  If you've inoculated yourself with facts you can try and spread the cure through calm repetition and reassurance.  Depending on how long your loved one has been afflicted, it may take repeated attempts for the cure to take hold.   Be aware, it may not work at all.  Some people may be chronically incompetent but you must try.

Join a support group - there are many out there:  The American Civil Liberties Union, The Anti-Defamation League, Amnesty International, The Human Rights Campaign, NAACP Legal Defense Fund, Electronic Frontier Foundation, are just a few.  Those and many more can help give you peace of mind that there is still hope.  All can use your time and financial assistance to combat the effects of Dunning-Kruger.

The road to recovery will not be easy and it's estimated that it will be at least another four years before those that have been recently afflicted can begin to show signs improvement.  Please act now before it's too late.

Galileo Repeated

Italian astronomer Galileo Galilei spent years at odds with the politically powerful in the 17th century when his scientific observations threatened to overturn the non-scientifc beliefs of the Catholic Church.  Eventually, Galileo faced inquisition proceedings from September 1632 to July 1633 that ended in a heresy conviction for which he spent his remaining years under house arrest.

Galileo had the science correct and it seems silly today to imagine a political argument over whether the sun is center of the solar system.  The empirical evidence is obvious enough for an elementary school child to understand.  The science around global warming is just as obvious yet, using the same 17th century playbook as the church, President Elect Donald Trump and his conservative leadership team are trying to stifle science for their own personal gain.

Trump's famous 2012 tweet set the tone for his future administration.  Trump is no expert in climate science and why anyone would give his position credence is incredible.  Years of evidence show the Earth's climate changing and 2016's voluminous additions to the research show arctic ice disappearing even faster than previously thought.  Trump and other climate change deniers face nearly universal evidence to the contrary yet they continue to make baseless statements that get followed in the media and gain traction with some, also non-expert, supporters.

Recently, Trump upped the stakes when his transition team asked the Department of Energy for the names of scientists working on climate change.  DoE declined to honor the request but that information should be readily available once Trump assumes the presidency and his choice for Secretary of Energy, Rick Perry, heads the department.

The parallels that ask has to persecution campaigns past from the Galileo inquisition to the McCarthy hearings are chilling.  Trump allies are heavily vested in oil, coal, and associated industries feel compelled to protect their financial interests.  They seem willing to stop at nothing to trade short term gain for long term consequences.  Firing scientists studying climate change and slashing research funding once in office are good bets on next steps.  A misinformation campaign promoted by a Trump administration will likely resonate with many of those that put him in office as they have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to dismiss fact for fiction.

Trump has a deep bench of individuals that stand to gain from the strategy.  Perry, the former Texas governor who will now head the department he famously vowed to eliminate but could not name, has significant ties to big oil.  Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt was tapped to head up the Environmental Protection Agency.  Pruitt sued the Obama administration over the climate rules for power plants to protect the energy industry.  Wilbur Ross, Trump's nominee to head the Department of Commerce, has business ties to the coal industry.  Future Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is current CEO of Exxon Mobil which is now under investigation for misleading investors on the effects of climate change.

All these men have several things in common.  All have ties to big energy, all are rich, and all stand to become richer the longer they are able to wield the power of the federal government to favorably impact the industries that have lined their pockets.  The businesses with which they've been involved are not democracies and the idea of running one must be foreign, yet governing a democracy is exactly what they've been asked to do.

Trump's team of leaders are ill prepared to govern.  Already their first instinct is to put their industries ahead of the common good.  If they next begin removing climate scientists and cutting research that is akin to restricting knowledge and crushing dissent.  Tweeting baseless information is propaganda.

Sounds a lot like tyranny.  Galileo could probably relate.

Tried and True Strategy

President Elect Donald Trump's social media droppings this past week included tweets scolding Boeing over the cost of a fleet of new presidential jets, scolding Alec Baldwin over his SNL impersonation of Trump himself, and scolding a local union leader for questioning details around Trumps self trumpeted Carrier deal.  Notably missing was any mention of support for coal miners who stand to lose retirement healthcare benefits as congressional Republicans renege on a promise their predecessors have honored for more than 60 years.

Trump, who campaigned on an energy policy that promoted expanding the use of coal to bring back lost jobs in mining states was noticeably absent from the dialog over action that would devastate retirees in that depressed industry.  Where was Trump's tweet outrage at Senate leader Mitch McConnell who has a record of blocking legislation to address the issue?  Where was Trump's bravado about a deal to save healthcare for retirees in an industry with an inherent risk of injury and long term health problems?  There were no tweets and no support for the workers in 16 major coal mining states - most of which Trump carried in the general election.  The only voices behind the mine workers were senate Democrats willing to hold up a government spending bill in an attempt to force positive action.

Lack of action by Trump and the Republican leadership is consistent with the party's long standing behavior to prioritize tax cuts over the greater good of all else.  At issue this time is a key United Mine Workers of America pension plan that is severely underfunded after suffering significant investment losses during the 2008 Wall Street financial crisis and industry bankruptcies in the wake of the moves to cleaner energy sources.  If the the federal Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp. has to cover the healthcare obligation, Congress will need to allocate nearly 2 billion dollars to meet the debt.  Republicans likely see that as a threat to their agenda of tax reductions which they believe the sole answer to stimulating economic growth and lining their own pockets.

No tax cut will make up for reneging on the health care guarantee.  Removing the safety net promised to thousands of retirees and their families would be devastating.  Ignoring that impact defeats the ideals around government for all the people and breaking the promise devalues the word of the the United States of America.  As part of a body that itself has a government promise of healthcare for life, the hypocrisy and lack of empathy Republicans exhibit over the issue is staggering.  Rather than even pass a short term extension to buy time for a long term fix, Republicans would rather do nothing and gamble the mining constituency not strong enough to exert meaningful influence to alter their priorities.  Bets like that have been solid for Republicans in the past and there is no reason to expect this time will be different.

Republican leaders deserve credit for continuing to wager on what they've identified as nearly sure things.  They have been shrewd in their calculations on what the public at large will devote time to understanding particularly when it comes to complex issues and their outcomes.  West Virginia, one of the states that will be hit hard should miner benefits disappear, voted nearly 68% in favor of Trump.  Yet, there appears to be no buyer's remorse on behalf of state voters given Trump has not denounced his party's desire to abandon them.

Republican leaders are masterful in their ability to stir up voters with over emotional issues like religion, abortion, and nostalgia of a better time while staying away from in depth education on the impact the economic policies they manipulate will actually have on the poor and middle class.  Like in West Virginia, blue collar voters in Indiana should have immediately had buyer's remorse when it became apparent much of the money Carrier will get in Trump's deal with go toward automating workers out of jobs.  It's unlikely any outrage will take hold there either since the devil in those details were leaked after the collective attention span of the electorate at large had moved on.

Sure, some people are just plain gullible and don't require much effort bamboozle.  However, when faced with clear actions and outcomes many individuals can make decisions that won't put themselves in jeopardy.  Republican leaders work hard to make sure actions and outcomes not positively impacting broad swathes of Americans are well veiled by short slogans, sound bytes without context, and misleading information spread online.  The work required to uncover the truth simply goes beyond the investment many people are willing to make at the expense of other things in their lives.  That is unfortunate and changing the behavior will be difficult.  Democrats have not demonstrated the wherewithal to even grasp the problem let alone craft a strategy to address it.  In the meantime, Republicans have no reason to change what's proven to be a tried and true strategy.

The Fact of the Matter

This week President Elect Donald Trump tweeted that he won the popular vote over Hillary Clinton despite the fact he did not win the popular vote.  Trump's assertion was that by deducting millions of illegal votes from the count he was the election day victor.  Trump offered zero facts to support his assertion nor did he ask for an investigation into any suspected irregularities to build credible evidence of voter fraud.  He simply said something baseless was true.

Businesses use data driven decisions daily to adjust to market forces.  They rely on research and facts to make important strategic and tactical decisions.  Otherwise, they find themselves out of business fairly quickly.   Yet, more and more, it seems individual Americans choose to let emotion drive their beliefs on any given topic rather than giving the time and effort to formulate data driven, fact based, decisions.

Social media venues like Facebook and Twitter are, by design, conduits for eliciting emotional responses.  Topics of interest are often shared because they tie directly to happiness, love, hate, anger, or friendship.  If an individual experiences an emotion such as anger or happiness over any given event, social media makes it easy for friends of the individual to, en mass, instantly tap into the emotion on a personal level.  Whatever the topic, the emotional bond between people can influence the ability to objectively interpret the facts.

Social media has also over inflated the weight of opinion in public discourse.  Opinions from friends, strangers, celebrities, and politicians are available on almost any topic across social media.  Opinions, whether they be from nationally influential people or those of influence in a small social circle, are not a substitute for facts but often overshadow them in sheer number.  Few social circles include professional expertise on every topic discussed and fewer yet include trained journalists or fact checkers that deliver accurate and complete content from which informed conclusion can be drawn.  That's not to say social media doesn't deliver news.  Forty four percent of people say they get news from Facebook.  The issue is that Facebook has disseminated a significant share of misinformation.  This misinformation is then delivered as fact in statements of opinion on social media without validation.

Trump's claim of voter fraud both pre and post election have been debunked.   However, in a September 2016 poll, 90 percent of Trump supporters said they didn't trust fact checkers.  When confronted with evidence of fact the valid way to disprove it is with empirical evidence to the contrary not a baseless statement of dismissal.  That is simply not being done and those doing it must be called out.  Ignorance or laziness are not alibis to deliver misinformation and unthruths.  Trump's election victory claim is not supportable by fact.  The statement is no more valid than a six year old claiming the Easter Bunny is real.

Until recently, not using researched facts was commonly accepted as either ignorant or a willful attempt to lie.  Today, there is an epidemic of baseless information fueled and accepted within like minded social circles.  That practice must end.  Facts matter.  The President Elect and all Americans must demand them, research them, use them, or dispute them with empirical evidence.  Anything short of that is unacceptable.



Note: For more on social media and human interaction this article from Salon is a fascinating read with links to additional fact based research.